With a place in the UEFA Europa League final on the line, Manchester United host Athletic Club at the legendary Old Trafford. After claiming a dominant 3-0 win in the first leg at San Mamés, the Red Devils hold a significant advantage heading into this return fixture. Yet, the contest is far from over. Athletic Club will be determined to respond in style, especially considering the unique incentive that the final is scheduled to be held at their own ground.
What makes this second leg fascinating is not only the aggregate scoreline but also the contrast in playing styles, philosophies, and recent form between these two storied European clubs. United, despite domestic inconsistencies, have shown flashes of tactical clarity under Rúben Amorim in Europe. On the other hand, Ernesto Valverde’s Bilbao side remains one of the most organized and disciplined defensive units in La Liga.
🔥 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗡𝗢𝗧?
— Athletic Club (@Athletic_en) May 5, 2025
🆚 @ManUtd
🗓️ Thursday, May 8
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Manchester United: Holding the Edge, But Not Home Yet
Tactical Identity Under Rúben Amorim
Manchester United’s approach this season has revolved around a hybrid 3-4-2-1 system that focuses on compactness, central buildup, and controlled pressing in the middle third. Under Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled in the Premier League but have managed to find tactical fluidity in Europe. Their ability to dominate possession while limiting the opposition’s shot quality has served them well on the continental stage.
In the first leg, United exploited Bilbao’s numerical disadvantage with precision, scoring three times without conceding. The midfield pairing of Casemiro and Ugarte dictated tempo, while Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho found pockets of space between the lines to create goal-scoring chances.
Statistical Snapshot
- Europa League Goals Scored (Avg): 1.2 per game
- Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
- Goals Conceded at Home (Avg): 1.24
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.27
- Clean Sheets in Europa League: 4 from 9 matches
- Ball Possession Rate (Home Matches): 59.2%
Squad Update
There are some key changes expected in the United lineup. Amad Diallo is back and available for selection, adding pace and creativity on the right flank. However, Matthijs de Ligt is a major doubt after sustaining an injury against Brentford, and both Lisandro Martínez and Joshua Zirkzee remain sidelined.
Predicted Lineup
- Goalkeeper: André Onana
- Defenders: Harry Maguire, Leny Yoro, Victor Lindelöf
- Wing-Backs: Noussair Mazraoui, Patrick Dorgu
- Central Midfielders: Casemiro, Manuel Ugarte
- Attacking Midfielders: Bruno Fernandes, Alejandro Garnacho
- Striker: Rasmus Højlund
Athletic Club: A Mountain to Climb, A Dream to Chase
Why Bilbao Cannot Be Counted Out
Despite trailing by three goals, Athletic Club arrive in Manchester with resilience in their DNA and the incentive of playing a European final on home soil. Known for their pressing intensity and tactical rigidity, the Basque side will aim to stifle United’s rhythm and capitalize on transitional moments.
Bilbao’s first-leg collapse was largely due to Dani Vivian’s early dismissal, which left them with ten men for over an hour. Prior to that, they had shown promising signs, especially through the dynamic movements of Nico and Iñaki Williams. If they can maintain discipline and convert their limited chances, an upset is not entirely out of the question.
Manchester United vs Athletic Club Key Metrics
- Goals Scored (Away Matches): 1.19 per game
- Expected Goals (xG): 1.35
- Goals Conceded (Away Matches): 0.79 per game
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
- Clean Sheet % in Away Matches: 33%
- Possession Rate (Away Matches): 47.1%
Injury and Suspension Report
Dani Vivian remains suspended following his red card. More worryingly for Valverde, midfield orchestrator Oihan Sancet has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. His absence will likely be filled by Gorka Guruzeta, although the tactical balance of the side may be affected.
Predicted Lineup
- Goalkeeper: Julen Agirrezabala
- Defenders: Óscar de Marcos, Aitor Paredes, Jon Morcillo, Yuri Berchiche
- Midfield Anchors: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Beñat Prados
- Attacking Trio: Iñaki Williams, Álex Berenguer, Nico Williams
- Centre Forward: Guruzeta
🏟️ Old Trafford awaits the Lions…
— Athletic Club (@Athletic_en) May 5, 2025
✨ 'The Theatre of Dreams' #MUFCAthletic #UniqueInTheWorld 🦁 pic.twitter.com/JkxhYowmFt
Manchester United vs Athletic Club Key Tactical Matchups to Watch
Casemiro vs Ruiz de Galarreta
The midfield battle will be crucial. Casemiro’s ability to intercept, tackle, and transition quickly could neutralize Bilbao’s attempts to build from the back. Conversely, Ruiz de Galarreta’s deep-lying playmaking will be essential to link defense and attack for the visitors.
Højlund vs Bilbao Centre-Backs
Rasmus Højlund’s movement off the ball and aerial ability will test Bilbao’s central defense, especially with Vivian suspended. Aitor Paredes will need to be at his best to match the physicality and pace of the Danish striker.
Nico Williams vs Mazraoui
This flank battle may determine Bilbao’s attacking success. Nico Williams has the speed to beat his man and deliver dangerous balls into the box. If he can get the better of Noussair Mazraoui, United’s back line could be stretched.
Manchester United vs Athletic Club Betting Tips
Full-Time Result: Athletic Club to Win
Odds: 3.52 (22Bet)
Despite the daunting deficit, Bilbao have the tactical discipline and motivation to claim a narrow victory. United may rest key players, and complacency could set in. A 1-0 away win is not improbable.
Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.92 (22Bet)
Both sides have shown strong defensive structure throughout the tournament. United will likely adopt a conservative approach to protect their lead, while Bilbao may struggle to break down a compact shape. A low-scoring match is anticipated.
Both Teams to Score: No
- United have failed to score in 41% of home games this season.
- Bilbao have kept clean sheets in 33% of away fixtures.
- With cautious tactics expected, this bet offers strong value.
Correct Score Prediction: Manchester United 0 – 1 Athletic Club
A slim away win for the Basques that falls short of turning the tie, but preserves pride and confirms their elite status on the European stage.
Road to the Final
If Manchester United hold on to their lead, they will advance to the Europa League final in Bilbao. For Amorim, this would represent a major success in his debut season in charge. Should Athletic Club achieve a miracle comeback, they would play for European glory on home soil—an outcome that would electrify Spanish football.
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We know what we have to do.#MUFC || #UEL pic.twitter.com/WKIE8LSHYy
— Manchester United (@ManUtd) May 6, 2025
Conclusion
Manchester United are firm favorites to progress, but this match still promises intrigue, drama, and tactical nuance. Athletic Club’s never-say-die spirit, coupled with United’s recent tendency to wobble under pressure, adds layers of unpredictability. With the right tactical execution and a bit of fortune, this second leg could yet deliver a major narrative twist.
