As Real Madrid host RCD Mallorca in this pivotal La Liga fixture on May 14, 2025, both sides approach the match with vastly different ambitions. For Los Blancos, this is about maintaining their chase for league dominance, reasserting their authority after an erratic run of form. For Mallorca, this is a battle for stability, a chance to consolidate a strong mid-table position by frustrating one of Spain’s biggest clubs.
Real Madrid enter this clash with recent turbulence shadowing their campaign. Despite high-profile wins, lapses in defense and occasional inconsistency have left them vulnerable, especially against sides capable of sitting deep and absorbing pressure. Mallorca, often underrated in the media spotlight, arrive at the Bernabéu well aware of Madrid’s defensive flaws and will look to exploit them through intelligent positioning and set-piece execution.
❤️🔥 𝐉𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝟑𝟔 | #RealMadridMallorca
— RCD Mallorca (@RCD_Mallorca) May 13, 2025
Acierta la porra #Descanshop y gana la chaqueta prematch
*Sorteo entre los acertantes de todas las redes pic.twitter.com/MZp8WRpUmV
Team Form and Performance Metrics
Real Madrid: High-Octane Attack, Defensive Gaps
In their last 10 league outings, Real Madrid have collected seven wins and three defeats. They’ve averaged 1.8 goals per match, stemming from an impressive 14.2 attempts per game and 6.0 shots on target. While their offensive unit continues to deliver—led by the electric Kylian Mbappé—their defensive vulnerability has become more pronounced. The backline, particularly against high-press teams or on the counter, has conceded 1.4 goals per game.
Carlo Ancelotti’s squad has also shown a consistent pattern in possession statistics, averaging 56.9% of the ball across their last 10 matches. Despite dominating the ball, Madrid have struggled at times to translate this possession into total control, often leaving open channels for opponents to counter.
Their passing accuracy remains high, with an average of 534 passes completed per match, indicating their technical control. But with only three clean sheets in 10 matches, there’s reason to believe Mallorca will have opportunities to create chances.
Key players to watch:
- Kylian Mbappé – 10 goals this season, lethal on the break
- Jude Bellingham – commanding midfield presence, drives transitions
- Thibaut Courtois – while reliable, the lack of defensive cohesion has tested him repeatedly
Mallorca: Compact Structure, Quiet Confidence
RCD Mallorca’s recent form is a mixed bag—three wins, four losses, and three draws in their last 10. They’ve maintained low-scoring outcomes, averaging just 0.9 goals per game while conceding the same. This speaks volumes about their compact defensive setup, where structure and discipline take precedence over flair.
Mallorca average 48.2% possession, with their offensive strategy relying more on smart transitions than sustained buildup. Their 3-2-4-1 formation, adopted by manager Jagoba Arrasate, emphasizes wing play, midfield congestion, and quick counters led by Vedat Muriqi, their lone striker and focal point.
Mallorca’s low corner average (3.6 per game) suggests that they don’t spend significant time in the final third but are opportunistic with set-pieces. Defensively, they are resilient, allowing just 0.9 goals per game even when heavily pressured.
Key contributors include:
- Sergi Darder – 2 goals, 4 assists; midfield maestro
- Takuma Asano – energetic, pressing forward with technical agility
- Leo Román – goalkeeper who’s grown into a commanding presence
Real Madrid vs Mallorca Head-to-Head and Recent Meetings
The last three meetings between Real Madrid and Mallorca have highlighted a growing tactical maturity in Mallorca. Despite Madrid dominating the overall record—winning six of the last nine—Mallorca managed to earn a 1-1 draw in the most recent encounter at home.
Real Madrid have found it difficult to break down Mallorca in recent seasons. The previous five matchups have included:
- A narrow 2-0 win for Madrid at the Bernabéu
- A 1-3 Madrid win at Mallorca’s ground
- A surprise 1-0 Mallorca victory in early 2023
The pattern here indicates that while Real Madrid frequently win, they rarely do so emphatically. This has significant implications for bettors and analysts looking at handicap lines.
📋✅ Our squad for the match!
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) May 13, 2025
🆚 @RCD_MallorcaEN pic.twitter.com/YV9XYZuP5o
Real Madrid vs Mallorca Tactical Analysis and Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid (4-4-2)
- Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
- Defenders: Federico Valverde, Jacobo Ramón, Raúl Asencio, Francisco García
- Midfielders: Daniel Ceballos, Luka Modrić, Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler
- Forwards: Endrick, Kylian Mbappé
This setup allows Madrid to press high and exploit wing spaces. Bellingham operates as the midfield engine, distributing quickly to forwards while Modrić controls tempo.
Mallorca (3-2-4-1)
- Goalkeeper: Leo Román
- Defenders: Martin Valjent, Antonio Raíllo, José Copete
- Midfielders: Pablo Maffeo, Johan Mojica, Takuma Asano, Samu, Sergi Darder, Dani Rodríguez
- Forward: Vedat Muriqi
This formation creates a midfield block of six when defending, with Muriqi positioned to capitalize on Madrid’s high line. The wing-backs often retreat into a back five, minimizing Madrid’s ability to overload flanks.
Statistical Breakdown
- Real Madrid last 10 games: 7 wins, 3 losses, 16 goals scored, 14 conceded
- Mallorca last 10 games: 3 wins, 4 losses, 9 goals scored, 9 conceded
- Mallorca away record: Covered +1.5 handicap in 17 of last 20 matches
- Real Madrid home scoring: Averaging 2.1 goals per match
- Both teams have scored in 60% of Real Madrid’s last 10 fixtures
Real Madrid vs Mallorca Betting Preview
Mallorca +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92
Given Mallorca’s defensive resilience and Madrid’s recent struggles to win convincingly, this line holds excellent value. Mallorca have covered the +1.5 line in 13 consecutive matches, and Madrid have failed to cover the -1.5 line in 10 straight outings. Historically, Madrid struggle to dominate Mallorca by large margins, particularly when Mallorca sit deep and slow the game down.
Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 1.95
Madrid’s defensive lapses and Mallorca’s knack for snatching goals through set-pieces make this a realistic outcome. Mallorca have scored in five of their last seven games and will find space in behind Madrid’s advanced fullbacks.
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Final Verdict
Real Madrid will likely control the game from the outset, pressing Mallorca with width and sharp interchanges between Mbappé and Bellingham. Yet, Ancelotti’s side may find themselves frustrated by Mallorca’s rigid structure, especially if an early goal fails to arrive. The visitors will seek to break the rhythm, capitalizing on set-pieces and defensive missteps.
While Real Madrid should claim the three points, the probability of a blowout remains low. The best value lies in handicap markets and conservative correct score predictions, with a narrow margin win the most probable result.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Mallorca
🎙️ @MrAncelotti 🎙️
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) May 13, 2025
📺 Press conference ➡️ RM Play
Conclusion
As the Bernabéu prepares for another chapter in this La Liga campaign, all eyes turn to how Real Madrid will respond to mounting pressure. Their firepower, led by Mbappé and Bellingham, is undeniable, yet defensive frailties leave the door open for a determined Mallorca side. With historical trends and statistical data pointing toward a narrow margin, this matchup is primed for a tightly contested battle.
Mallorca’s recent form and consistent ability to keep matches close, especially on the road, make them a smart choice on the +1.5 Asian handicap. Real Madrid may secure the win, but it’s unlikely to come easily. Whether you’re a fan, punter, or analyst, this fixture promises intrigue, tactical nuance, and real betting value.
